Power Line has a new posting on the results from the Democratic primary in South Carolina. In it the author notes the much larger turnout for the Democrats versus the Republican primary in the state. He takes this as a sign that the trend continues in Democrats favor and may be a sign of things to come.
While in the abstract, there are positive signs for the Democrats, these aren't very transferable to the final match-up in November.
First of all, Republicans haven't made a clear choice in South Carolina or anywhere else. McCain, Romney, Huckabee, and perhaps Guiliani all appeal to different parts of the Republican coalition. All these candidates are also unappealing to each faction in-part as well. No candidate has been able to frame himself as appealing to the majority of Republicans as George Bush did in 2000. As a result, without a clear choice, Republicans are less excited about their candidates and less likely to vote in the primary. Most Republicans will unite behind the eventual winner, especially with a deft VP choice such as South Carolina's governor, Mark Sanford. Also, if Clinton is the Democrats nominee, she will serve to further unite and energize the Republican base.
On the Democrats side, primary voters are flooding to the polls in part due to the anger of the last two presidential elections. However, the biggest reason is likely Obama. He is a fresh face with a message of change that is really resonating with voters whose opinion of government (both parties) is at an all-time low.
If Clinton wins the nomination it is unlikely she'll be able to capture this excitement. She (and her husband) have begun running a very personal and negative campaign against Obama. This makes it likely she'll destroy the excitement of voters who have been drawn by Obama's image as an alternative to politics as usual. It is also likely that her tactics will leave many African-American voters with little desire to vote in the general election come November. Whether intentional or not, the Clintons personal attacks on Obama have a racists overtones that are seriously drying up the support for both Hillary and Bill Clinton among the African-American community.
All the indicators are there that would lead one to expect the Democrats to win the White House come November. However, when the competition changes from any Democrat v. any Republican to Clinton/Obama v. McCain/Romney both Republican candidates have attributes which hurt them in the primaries that are likely to help them in November.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Friday, January 25, 2008
Might Republicans hold on to the White House?
It could just be my personal bias, but it's looking more and more likely that this country could have a Republican in the White House for at least another four years.
After tonight's Republican debate, Romney looks good and heading for a victory in Floria. Unless Guiliani comes back and wins the state, the race will be between McCain and Romney and both are looking good for the general election in November.
John McCain does well in early head-to-head polls due in large part to his appeal to Independent voters. His two biggest weaknesses in the general election would seem to be his inability to inspire passion in the conservative base and get out the vote and also his support for the war in Iraq.
McCain's weakness among core conservatives may be largely neutralized by the Clinton-factor -- core conservatives will show up to vote for almost anyone against Hillary Clinton. The impact of Iraq is less clear. The surge appears to be working. The new news out of Iraq rumors that, as early as July, there may be a deal in place to take US troops out of regular combat as Iraqi forces step in. The negotiation process hasn't yet started so it's unlikely large numbers of US forces will be coming home by year's end. However, even an announcement of plans to replace US troops with Iraqi forces in combat would be a huge boost to John McCain and a further vindication of his support for the surge.
If Romney is the Republican nominee, his appeal to Independents appears far more limited than McCain but given that he was elected Governor of liberal Massachusetts he'll make a good run at moderates. More importantly, his weaknesses will be diminished in the general election and his strengths more on display.
Romney's biggest weakness so far has been his changing positions on social issues. So, while the Clinton (or Obama) campaign will make subtle hints that Romney is a flip-flopper, a Democrat won't win in November by telling the general public their opponent has a moderate/liberal record on social issues.
Moving on to more substantive issues, Romney would also benefit should the news in Iraq continue to get better. On the flip side however, Romney would have some room to maneuver should the news from Iraq take a turn for the worse. As a Washington outsider he could take a strong position of continued involvement in Iraq without inheriting all of President Bush's mistakes in Iraq over the past half-decade.
The other big looming issue is the economy. Based on tonight's debate, it is a big strength for Romney. Romney's stance on economic issues is more crisp and confident than other issues and he can continue to champion his business success as an indicator of his ability to manage the US economy.
Conversely, rather than run on personal expertise Hillary Clinton will likely rely on her husband's economic record and the decline of the current economy occurring on the Republican's watch. It is unclear how the first strategy would play out, the tough Democratic primary is an indication that not everyone is ready to simply reprise the 90s.
The economic situation may not be as dire as claimed. However, regardless of the outcome, Romney is unlikely to inherent all the blame for a poor economy that usually lands on the nominee of the President's party.
To start with, congress's abysmal approval rating is even lower than the President's indicating a widespread distrust and disappointment with government. This not only aligns with Romney's new mantra as an outside agent of change, but also may lead voters to look past party affiliation and vote for the candidate with the best solution to economic problems.
Also in Romney's favor is some indication that American's view lower taxes as an important part a good economy. Whether or not the Republican nominee can spin the expiration of Bush's tax cuts and a huge tax increase, it shouldn't be hard to convince voters that the only way either Obama or Clinton could pay for their litany of new programs is with tax increases.
Conventional wisdom tells us that with a war in Iraq, the economy make headlines, and the Republicans congressional loss in '06 the Democrats should be poised to retake the White House. However, when the race moves beyond the abstract and gets down to two candidates, the Republicans certainly look to have an advantage.
After tonight's Republican debate, Romney looks good and heading for a victory in Floria. Unless Guiliani comes back and wins the state, the race will be between McCain and Romney and both are looking good for the general election in November.
John McCain does well in early head-to-head polls due in large part to his appeal to Independent voters. His two biggest weaknesses in the general election would seem to be his inability to inspire passion in the conservative base and get out the vote and also his support for the war in Iraq.
McCain's weakness among core conservatives may be largely neutralized by the Clinton-factor -- core conservatives will show up to vote for almost anyone against Hillary Clinton. The impact of Iraq is less clear. The surge appears to be working. The new news out of Iraq rumors that, as early as July, there may be a deal in place to take US troops out of regular combat as Iraqi forces step in. The negotiation process hasn't yet started so it's unlikely large numbers of US forces will be coming home by year's end. However, even an announcement of plans to replace US troops with Iraqi forces in combat would be a huge boost to John McCain and a further vindication of his support for the surge.
If Romney is the Republican nominee, his appeal to Independents appears far more limited than McCain but given that he was elected Governor of liberal Massachusetts he'll make a good run at moderates. More importantly, his weaknesses will be diminished in the general election and his strengths more on display.
Romney's biggest weakness so far has been his changing positions on social issues. So, while the Clinton (or Obama) campaign will make subtle hints that Romney is a flip-flopper, a Democrat won't win in November by telling the general public their opponent has a moderate/liberal record on social issues.
Moving on to more substantive issues, Romney would also benefit should the news in Iraq continue to get better. On the flip side however, Romney would have some room to maneuver should the news from Iraq take a turn for the worse. As a Washington outsider he could take a strong position of continued involvement in Iraq without inheriting all of President Bush's mistakes in Iraq over the past half-decade.
The other big looming issue is the economy. Based on tonight's debate, it is a big strength for Romney. Romney's stance on economic issues is more crisp and confident than other issues and he can continue to champion his business success as an indicator of his ability to manage the US economy.
Conversely, rather than run on personal expertise Hillary Clinton will likely rely on her husband's economic record and the decline of the current economy occurring on the Republican's watch. It is unclear how the first strategy would play out, the tough Democratic primary is an indication that not everyone is ready to simply reprise the 90s.
The economic situation may not be as dire as claimed. However, regardless of the outcome, Romney is unlikely to inherent all the blame for a poor economy that usually lands on the nominee of the President's party.
To start with, congress's abysmal approval rating is even lower than the President's indicating a widespread distrust and disappointment with government. This not only aligns with Romney's new mantra as an outside agent of change, but also may lead voters to look past party affiliation and vote for the candidate with the best solution to economic problems.
Also in Romney's favor is some indication that American's view lower taxes as an important part a good economy. Whether or not the Republican nominee can spin the expiration of Bush's tax cuts and a huge tax increase, it shouldn't be hard to convince voters that the only way either Obama or Clinton could pay for their litany of new programs is with tax increases.
Conventional wisdom tells us that with a war in Iraq, the economy make headlines, and the Republicans congressional loss in '06 the Democrats should be poised to retake the White House. However, when the race moves beyond the abstract and gets down to two candidates, the Republicans certainly look to have an advantage.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Why McCain should be the GOP nominee
While I rely on the American press to remain as objective as possible throughout the political process, I refuse to do so. It is no secret that I am a fan of John McCain, but it is now that I lay out why I am such a fan.
Primarily, it is about having an independent minded conservative politician as the President of the United States. While people of the likes of Rush Limbaugh and Tom DeLay have bristled at the idea of a McCain presidency, there is no doubt that McCain is a bona fide conservative. He has consistently opposed wasteful spending, cut taxes, fairly but firmly executed US foreign policy, and values strong families and a strong economy. What people like DeLay are really angry about is that he "won't always do what's in the best interest of the Party." His motivation is always what is best for the country. That means that if he believes dealing with global warming is in the nation's best interest, he will take it on. If it means that we must have a troop surge because allowing Iraq to degrade into anarchy would be disastrous, it means that he backs that unpopular policy. It also means being the ONLY candidate from the GOP to correctly stand against the torture that is water boarding. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney hasn't found a position on an issue he doesn't like if it means it is popular amongst the people he is talking to.
Secondly, it is about breaking the cycle of 20 years of gridlock in Washington, DC. While everyone likes to talk about George Bush's polarizing politics, no one wants to admit his strategy is based upon a pattern established by the Clintons in the 90's. The savage lies and distortions now directed against Obama were commonplace in the (first?) Clinton Administration when dealing with the GOP in the 90's or the numerous women Bill harassed or assaulted. No other candidate in the GOP field will be able to weather and turn back the Clinton attacks; thus no other candidate fairs as well in hypothetical polls against the potential Democratic nominees. And there's a reason for this - McCain is the anti-Clinton. He has served his country, rather than having a 30 year strategy to get the country to serve him. He's against pork projects, while she is the Queen of Pork. With her treatment of Obama, it is clear that Hillary will say and do anything to become president. McCain will run a principled, tough campaign but won't lie and won't lower himself to win. And Hillary certainly can't play the experience card - he has 3 times the service at the national level compared to her and has a more principled stand on foreign and domestic affairs.
I don't agree with McCain on every issue. I think his principled stand on immigration needed to be matched with an equally principled stand on securing the border. But I don't ever have to worry about McCain making decisions on what is best for him, his cronies, or the Republican Party. I know his decisions are based upon what is right for the country. No other candidate does this, and thus no other candidate is qualified to be the leader of the United States. Ultimately, I believe John McCain is exactly what this country needs after 20 years of gridlock and 8 years of inept leadership.
Primarily, it is about having an independent minded conservative politician as the President of the United States. While people of the likes of Rush Limbaugh and Tom DeLay have bristled at the idea of a McCain presidency, there is no doubt that McCain is a bona fide conservative. He has consistently opposed wasteful spending, cut taxes, fairly but firmly executed US foreign policy, and values strong families and a strong economy. What people like DeLay are really angry about is that he "won't always do what's in the best interest of the Party." His motivation is always what is best for the country. That means that if he believes dealing with global warming is in the nation's best interest, he will take it on. If it means that we must have a troop surge because allowing Iraq to degrade into anarchy would be disastrous, it means that he backs that unpopular policy. It also means being the ONLY candidate from the GOP to correctly stand against the torture that is water boarding. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney hasn't found a position on an issue he doesn't like if it means it is popular amongst the people he is talking to.
Secondly, it is about breaking the cycle of 20 years of gridlock in Washington, DC. While everyone likes to talk about George Bush's polarizing politics, no one wants to admit his strategy is based upon a pattern established by the Clintons in the 90's. The savage lies and distortions now directed against Obama were commonplace in the (first?) Clinton Administration when dealing with the GOP in the 90's or the numerous women Bill harassed or assaulted. No other candidate in the GOP field will be able to weather and turn back the Clinton attacks; thus no other candidate fairs as well in hypothetical polls against the potential Democratic nominees. And there's a reason for this - McCain is the anti-Clinton. He has served his country, rather than having a 30 year strategy to get the country to serve him. He's against pork projects, while she is the Queen of Pork. With her treatment of Obama, it is clear that Hillary will say and do anything to become president. McCain will run a principled, tough campaign but won't lie and won't lower himself to win. And Hillary certainly can't play the experience card - he has 3 times the service at the national level compared to her and has a more principled stand on foreign and domestic affairs.
I don't agree with McCain on every issue. I think his principled stand on immigration needed to be matched with an equally principled stand on securing the border. But I don't ever have to worry about McCain making decisions on what is best for him, his cronies, or the Republican Party. I know his decisions are based upon what is right for the country. No other candidate does this, and thus no other candidate is qualified to be the leader of the United States. Ultimately, I believe John McCain is exactly what this country needs after 20 years of gridlock and 8 years of inept leadership.
Mitt Romney - finding his footing
In addition to improving poll numbers, Mitt Romney looks like he might get a boost from the Republican Florida primary debate tonight. He'll also get a boost from Fred Thompson dropping out of the race and Mike Huckabee fading as primary voters focus in on the top tier of McCain, Romney, and perhaps Guiliani (pending the outcome in Florida).
If tonight's debate is any indication, Romney benefits as focus shifts from answering abstract questions to prove ones absolute adherence to the ideologies that make up the Republican Party to a more focused debate about specific fixes to specific problems.
On issues such as abortion and gun control, Governor Romney struggles to reconcile his stances taken as Governor of Massachusetts with his new positions as a candidate in the Republican presidential primary.
However when the talk shifts to the economy and even the war, Romney is more absolute and he's able to go on offense rather than play defense. Especially on the economy, his answers are solution oriented and crisp. The economy also plays to his big strength as a smart and successful business man.
On national security and Iraq he is sounding more like McCain and Guiliani as his attack on Hillary Clinton showed tonight.
Like McCain, I think Romney's biggest challenge may be winning the primary with the general election playing far more to his strengths than a Republican primary race does.
If tonight's debate is any indication, Romney benefits as focus shifts from answering abstract questions to prove ones absolute adherence to the ideologies that make up the Republican Party to a more focused debate about specific fixes to specific problems.
On issues such as abortion and gun control, Governor Romney struggles to reconcile his stances taken as Governor of Massachusetts with his new positions as a candidate in the Republican presidential primary.
However when the talk shifts to the economy and even the war, Romney is more absolute and he's able to go on offense rather than play defense. Especially on the economy, his answers are solution oriented and crisp. The economy also plays to his big strength as a smart and successful business man.
On national security and Iraq he is sounding more like McCain and Guiliani as his attack on Hillary Clinton showed tonight.
Like McCain, I think Romney's biggest challenge may be winning the primary with the general election playing far more to his strengths than a Republican primary race does.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Lending money to those who are broke
One of the cardinal rules in life is that you never lend money to friends, especially broke ones. I can't help but see the recently announced economic stimulus package as such a loan, just amongst 300 million of our closest friends. The $140+ billion is really just a loan to ourselves since we are running a deficit, all while we have a national debt that is worth 69% of the US GDP and three times the current federal budget. In a nation where thousands of homeonwers are losing their homes due to poor financial planning, the plan for getting the economy back on track is to count on continued poor financial planning by those on the lower end of the socio-economic scale - they are the ones most likely to spend and not save their rebate. Great - we all just took out a loan to buy crap we don't need instead of addressing the debt we are swimming in personally and collectively. I will personally contribute to the trade deficit by buying an iPhone.
On another note, I think that Fred Thompson should be considered as a potential AG now that he is out of the race. He clearly meets the Clinton requirements for any job as he not only hung around some AG's for his role on Law and Order, but he also played one on TV. That's at least twice the qualifications for the role of AG than Hillary Clinton has for being president.
On another note, I think that Fred Thompson should be considered as a potential AG now that he is out of the race. He clearly meets the Clinton requirements for any job as he not only hung around some AG's for his role on Law and Order, but he also played one on TV. That's at least twice the qualifications for the role of AG than Hillary Clinton has for being president.
Sunday, January 20, 2008
The trouble with identity politics
After another round of primaries and a caucus, it is time to comment on what seems to be the one consistent emerging theme: identity politics. While many in the press can't seem to give any Republican a chance to succeed W, we may be witnessing the disintegration of the various factions within the Democratic Party that are supposedly united in anyone but a Republican for President.
While New Hampshire was a harbinger of things to come, the Nevada caucuses and the barbs traded by the Obama and Clinton camps in the lead up to it have just deepened the divide. The latest casualty in this debate is Oprah Winfrey. Apparently, a good number of her fans feel she is traitor because she endorsed a black man and not the woman in the race. Feelings similar to this likely led to the large turnout of women voters that propelled Hillary to victory in Nevada. I guess it is just Obama's bad luck that he was born black (12% of the population), instead of a women (50%+ of the nation). This lack of focus on issues, combined with continual, counterproductive sniping by Hillary's husband, has led Obama to correctly question the Clinton campaign's strategy on Monday's Good Morning America. The question, which aggrieved minority group within the Democratic Party will win?
Contrast this with McCain's win in South Carolina. While he is no darling of the evangelical movement that has made up a good portion of the Republican party over the last several decades, he was able to piece together a coalition of conservatives and independents in South Carolina. Perhaps most encouraging is that McCain has been able to weather attacks from the likes of Rush Limbaugh and Tom DeLay, who are incensed that he doesn't bow to their dogmatic beliefs of old-school conservatism, and still won in South Carolina. To listen to DeLay is to listen to a man who is angry that his hand got caught in the Abramoff cookie jar - an issue championed by John McCain. Limbaugh is probably angry that if McCain gets elected president, he won't be able to do his usual backslapping, propaganda filled "interviews" with a VP like Dick Cheney - that's because McCain would NEVER allow his administration to be associated with such a bombastic partisan as Limbaugh. The biggest sin by McCain, it seems, is his ability to appeal to more than one interest group. He thinks for himself, doesn't kowtow to party orthodoxy, and can find compromises that work for both parties involved. How dare he?!?!?!
While there are many primaries to go, it seems that identity and single issue groups may determine the course of the election. On the Democratic side, it may tear the party apart with two powerful groups - women and African Americans - doing battle. In the Republican Party, John McCain may have found a way to transcend the divisions within the party of the last 20+ years. We'll see which strategy fairs better once the primaries are done and the general election begins.
While New Hampshire was a harbinger of things to come, the Nevada caucuses and the barbs traded by the Obama and Clinton camps in the lead up to it have just deepened the divide. The latest casualty in this debate is Oprah Winfrey. Apparently, a good number of her fans feel she is traitor because she endorsed a black man and not the woman in the race. Feelings similar to this likely led to the large turnout of women voters that propelled Hillary to victory in Nevada. I guess it is just Obama's bad luck that he was born black (12% of the population), instead of a women (50%+ of the nation). This lack of focus on issues, combined with continual, counterproductive sniping by Hillary's husband, has led Obama to correctly question the Clinton campaign's strategy on Monday's Good Morning America. The question, which aggrieved minority group within the Democratic Party will win?
Contrast this with McCain's win in South Carolina. While he is no darling of the evangelical movement that has made up a good portion of the Republican party over the last several decades, he was able to piece together a coalition of conservatives and independents in South Carolina. Perhaps most encouraging is that McCain has been able to weather attacks from the likes of Rush Limbaugh and Tom DeLay, who are incensed that he doesn't bow to their dogmatic beliefs of old-school conservatism, and still won in South Carolina. To listen to DeLay is to listen to a man who is angry that his hand got caught in the Abramoff cookie jar - an issue championed by John McCain. Limbaugh is probably angry that if McCain gets elected president, he won't be able to do his usual backslapping, propaganda filled "interviews" with a VP like Dick Cheney - that's because McCain would NEVER allow his administration to be associated with such a bombastic partisan as Limbaugh. The biggest sin by McCain, it seems, is his ability to appeal to more than one interest group. He thinks for himself, doesn't kowtow to party orthodoxy, and can find compromises that work for both parties involved. How dare he?!?!?!
While there are many primaries to go, it seems that identity and single issue groups may determine the course of the election. On the Democratic side, it may tear the party apart with two powerful groups - women and African Americans - doing battle. In the Republican Party, John McCain may have found a way to transcend the divisions within the party of the last 20+ years. We'll see which strategy fairs better once the primaries are done and the general election begins.
Friday, January 11, 2008
Great Minds Think Alike, Part 2
So back in November I posted a piece about how I beat one of my favorite columnists, Camille Paglia, to the punch on a topic regarding Hillary Clinton's behavior. It seems I have done it again! Miss Paglia was a day late in her analysis of Clinton's New Hampshire victory, how her polarizing personality would bring further gridlock to DC if she were elected, and the awful way she and her husband treat the people they supposedly care about. I don't always agree with Paglia's political views, but her analysis of politics is often dead on.
As for Cupid Shuffle's latest post thanking Fred Thompson, I must give him a hearty thank you as well. He is a useful loser in this instance, not really having a chance at winning in South Carolina but perhaps sucking off enough votes from Huckabee's evangelical base to help assure a McCain win. The scenario of McCain winning Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida prior to Super Tuesday is becoming more plausible with each passing day. While his campaign is re-invigorated, the one candidate going after the same GOP voters as him - Rudy Giuliani - is now asking staff to go without pay. Perhaps that strategy of waiting until Florida didn't work out after all. Meanwhile, Romney is drawing small crowds in his home state of Michigan. While he is out touting his parents burial plots and cynically appealing to auto workers with pipe dreams of getting their old jobs back, McCain is proposing real solutions like federal programs to help community colleges cope with the crunch of workers that need new training in rust belt states. Having just moved from Michigan after working six years there, I can tell you Romney is barking up the wrong tree. The conservatives of Michigan (who will be voting on the 15th) have been seeking economic diversification for decades, realizing that Big Three dominance was finished once the US auto market was opened up to foreign competition. It is now bad enough that even the rank-and-file of the unions recognize that the state must look to more than auto industry jobs for its economic future.
Perhaps the GOP may finally right the wrong that was done to McCain eight years ago, starting in Michigan next Tuesday.
As for Cupid Shuffle's latest post thanking Fred Thompson, I must give him a hearty thank you as well. He is a useful loser in this instance, not really having a chance at winning in South Carolina but perhaps sucking off enough votes from Huckabee's evangelical base to help assure a McCain win. The scenario of McCain winning Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida prior to Super Tuesday is becoming more plausible with each passing day. While his campaign is re-invigorated, the one candidate going after the same GOP voters as him - Rudy Giuliani - is now asking staff to go without pay. Perhaps that strategy of waiting until Florida didn't work out after all. Meanwhile, Romney is drawing small crowds in his home state of Michigan. While he is out touting his parents burial plots and cynically appealing to auto workers with pipe dreams of getting their old jobs back, McCain is proposing real solutions like federal programs to help community colleges cope with the crunch of workers that need new training in rust belt states. Having just moved from Michigan after working six years there, I can tell you Romney is barking up the wrong tree. The conservatives of Michigan (who will be voting on the 15th) have been seeking economic diversification for decades, realizing that Big Three dominance was finished once the US auto market was opened up to foreign competition. It is now bad enough that even the rank-and-file of the unions recognize that the state must look to more than auto industry jobs for its economic future.
Perhaps the GOP may finally right the wrong that was done to McCain eight years ago, starting in Michigan next Tuesday.
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