What Hillary Clinton needs to do to get strong wins in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania:
(1) The best defense is a smart offense:
Clinton needs to continue to attack Obama in order to bring down the messianic vision he has created of himself. Her problem so far has been that her campaign's attacks are more like blunt force trauma when they need to be precise, sharp, and to the point. Early attacks referenced Obama's admission of marijuana use many years ago and a kindergarten paper revealing his ambition to be president. These attacks were foolish and petty. They also made it easier to dismiss all future criticisms as desperate win-at-costs attacks from the Clinton machine.
Instead, she needs to offer direct, bite-sized criticisms challenging his rhetoric as empty and self-serving. Stay on the attack, but stick to attacks on his political substance and ability to govern and avoid cheap shots on his character.
(2) Highlight the difference between speaking and doing
Here again, Clinton's attempts have been botched and half baked. Minimizing the accomplishments of Martin Luther King, Jr. - whether intentional or not - when Clinton tried to claim that it took a president (LBJ) to pass the civil rights bill was poorly conceived, inaccurate, and just plain dumb. It alienated a lot of voters, sounded very arrogant, and minimized the accomplishments of an American icon. It also ceded Obama the role of MLK.
Instead, Senator Clinton needs to deny Obama that role. Martin Luther King wasn't simply a great speaker; his legacy is not simply defined by his speeches. Instead he acted - courageously and selflessly. He was wiling to suffer through police brutality and imprisonment in order to see his vision of a better society become a reality. Obama can borrow words from America's great leaders, but he has acted on any vision beyond his own ambition. Where is Obama's sacrifice? What is his vision of how to make America better, and what has he done / what is he willing to do to get there?
Obama talks about changing Washington? Clinton needs to get people asking what he's going to change it into, and most importantly, how is that change going to help Americans.
(3) Call out the difference between Obama's promises and what he will deliver
Building on (1) and (2), Clinton needs to challenge Obama on the difference between his actions and his rhetoric and challenge the gaps between his promises and what he will deliver. In doing this, Clinton must be careful to challenge what he will deliver and not claming he can't deliver. Democratic primary voters don't want to be told that their nominee can't get them what they want. Clinton won't win by scolding voters for being unrealistic. Instead, she needs to focus on the gaps between the ideas Obama talks about, and the actions he promises.
On health insurance for example, Obama promises "universal coverage" through a "build it and they will come" idealism. He claims, idealistically, that making health care cheaper will bring all Americans into the health insurance system - despite the fact that millions of uninsured Americans can afford health insurance, or qualify for government programs but aren't enrolled.
There's ammunition on other issues as well. Obama claims to be unaffected by money politics yet looks like he might go back on his decision to accept public funds in the general election.
Clinton should also agree to opt-in to public financing for the general election should she be the nominee - provided McCain does the same.
This will be hard for Clinton to do well. These criticisms need to be cordial and professional and avoid the personal negativity and fervor of her prior attacks. It will also be difficult because a lot of the difference between Obama's rhetoric and action lies in his partisanship. He claims he'll unite America and end partisanship yet he's consistently been one of the most liberal voices in Congress and is campaigning with Ted Kennedy a classic old-school liberal partisan. Clinton needs to find a way to claim bipartisan credentials without alienating too much of her party.
(4) Refine the message, use Obama's words against him
In a world of sound bites, Clinton's team has been very inept at using them. The most repeated sounds bites from her campaign so far are most likely those from President Clinton comparing Obama to Jesse Jackson, and referencing Obama's message as a fairy tale. Neither was a positive step for the campaign.
Clinton needs to use Obama's words against him. She needs to refine her message and her criticisms. Talk about how America needs hope and that hope is a good thing, but that we hope and dream for a better America. Convince them that Obama is only hoping to be president. She needs to convince voters that she doesn't just hope to change Washington, but to change government to better provide Americans with health insurance, better jobs, and economic growth. Convince Americans that she's not only hoped for, and talked about change, but worked towards it.
Obama tries to insulate himself behind the rhetoric of Martin Luther King, John F. Kennedy, and FDR. Clinton shouldn't hide from this, she should use his words, his allusions, and remind voters that these men backed up their words with actions, that they dreamed of particular things - racial equality, and end to the depression, reaching the moon - and worked to get there.
(5) Less is more, evolve and get out of your own way
This is perhaps the hardest, yet most important for Clinton to accomplish. Obama is all ideas. It was an asset as a challenger, but should be exploited as a weakness now that he's the frontrunner. Being all about ideas allows people to interpret Obama's ideals as encompassing their own. It creates a connection between Obama and the voters. People don't know exactly what he'll do, but they hope as president, Obama will accomplish what they want.
Conversely, everyone knows what Clinton has done and will do as president. She's all policy all the time. Now, she needs to move away from her comfort zone and switch rolls. She needs to press Obama about policy specifics while making people believe she has hopes and dreams that the voters can be a part of. Most voters already know her policies, they know how smart she is. Voters understand how much Clinton knows about healthcare, they just don't translate this cold intelligence into passion. This is why Obama is pulling even in polls as to which one them would best handle healthcare. Obama is passionate about changing healthcare. Voters don't really know how he'll change it, so they insert their own ideas.
Clinton needs to convert a 15 minute conversation about the specifics of her healthcare policy into a 5 minute narrative about how much she wants to make it work. At this point, she needs to use her past experience to show she believes in it more than Obama, not that she knows more about it. If she can do this across the board she can put Obama on the defensive, forcing him to provide specifics.
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Hillary Clinton will never excite voters the way Barack Obama does. He appeals to voter's hearts in a way that Clinton's personality prevents her from doing. However, she can soften her tone and invite people to join her, instead of telling them it's the only smart thing to do. This is not a battle between emotion and logic; hope and experience are not mutually exclusive. Clinton must convince voters that she has both, and that makes her the better candidate. She needs to show that Obama's actions - past and present - reveal his passion and promises to be a construct of good speech writing and oratory skills, and not core beliefs that will make him an effective champion of voters' ideals. Ultimately, she needs to convince voters that her experience and knowledge is not an alternative to Obama's passion, but is proof of her own.
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