Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Is McCain's Ego Running his Campaign?

Anyone following the recent news from the Republican has seen McCain attacked from the right by Rush Limbaugh or James Dobson. While some of their noise is clearly designed to keep themselves relevant, the run up to Super Tuesday, and the election itself is telling some interesting stories as of 10:00 EST.

Starting things off, McCain campaigned in Massachusetts in the lead up to Tuesday's election. Beating Romney in (one of) his home state(s) would be a huge win. However campaigning there when Georgia and Missouri were in play and he would be a long shot to win in Mass. is foolish. It also looks like McCain made an emotional/angry decision to attack Romney in his home state.

This could be part of a larger strategy to leave Huckabee to win heavily conservative states like Missouri and Georgia, where as of 10pm EST, Huckabee is leading. McCain is in second so if that holds he'll have beaten Romney in both states so it may not matter.

However, there is some question about the general-election implications of McCain focusing so much on the NE, and relying on their delegates. These are states that are extremely unlikely to go Republican in November, even with a moderate like John McCain on the ticket.

Regardless of the final outcome tonight, one does have to wonder about McCain's temperament and how it will play in November should he be the nominee. One reason many conservatives (like Dobson) don't like McCain is not simply because they disagree on certain issues. McCain has a habit of not only disagreeing with people, but also demeaning his opponents position.

I believe many of McCain's more liberal positions could be forgiven by conservatives if he showed greater respect for those that disagreed with him. Instead, often mimicking Democratic talking point, he attacked his opponents.

I firmly believe that come November, the vast majority of Republicans will set aside their differences and come out to fight the Democratic nominee. However, if McCain wins the nomination on the strength of moderate Republican and Independent voters and thumbs his nose at the conservative base he may be in trouble come November. If he continues is arrogant stand-off with the base, core conservatives may conclude that it's better to stay at home come November and pick up this fight again in the 2010 midterms and 2012 elections than suffer through a Republican presidency that does little to support Republican values.

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