Iowa Part II: Who is Hillary Clinton Running Against

Watching Hillary Clinton's post-caucus speech in Iowa I was left wondering who her audience was. Flanked by beltway insiders Wesley Clark (Bill Clinton's NATO commander in Kosovo) and Madeleine Albright (Bill Clinton's Secretary of State) Hillary Clinton gave a speech that seemed much more appropriate for the hyper-partisan halls of the US Senate or the op-ed page of the New York Times than on the presidential primary trail.

Mirroring her campaign to date, she attacked specific positions of the Bush administration and stressed her ability to "restore the image of America" abroad. While Barrack Obama certainly hasn't shied away from attacking President Bush - this is the Democratic Primary after all - he has focused on how he will make things better and move forward, contrasting Clinton's desire to continue partisan fights of the last 8 years. Even when he attacks policies enacting by the Bush administration, he doesn't call out the President by name, he simply states how he'll perform better on that issue.

If nothing else, this just highlights her biggest weakness - she is completely tone deaf and unable to relate to the voters around her. Her speeches are about her - what she has done, what she helped (or watched) her husband do, and what she knows. Obama talks with people, not at them. Even looking at the little things, Clinton just doesn't get it.

Obama began his Iowa victory speech by clapping for his supporters and their victory, seeming very comfortable with the excitement in the crowd. He also had a very savvy line about how his supporters didn't "do this for him, they did it for them and the country." Clinton by contrast seemed uncomfortable with her supporters. She spoke far more about herself, and how she could/would win the Presidency while Obama talked about what they (he, his supporters, and the country) could accomplish together.

This is all anecdotal, but clearly Clinton's opportunity to win does not lie with her ability to connect with voters. Instead she'll need a top down approach relying on her connections to the Democratic political elite to organize and get voters out for her. Her beltway-insider rhetoric would certainly seem to play much better with this crowd.

It seems that to many of the DNC elite this election is a continuation of the fight against Bush from 2000 and 2004, with 2008 being a final chance to settle the score. This is certainly illustrated by the conduct of the Democratic Congress. After partially running on a platform of bipartisanship and civility, the new majority continued the dirty tricks that the GOP majority had used. While this brand of politics may appeal to some, it is clear that Obama's "politics of hope" resonate much better with the rank and file.

Clinton is banking on support from political insiders from her husband's administration, and those that hope to be insiders in her administration. Her problem is that as Obama gains more momentum, and appears more likely to win the nomination, the less likely DNC power hitters are stand behind Clinton.

What I find interesting is that the Iowa caucus is all about connecting with voters. It is very personal. Political capital and political operatives have far less of an impact than personality and "the politics of hope." This was true for both parties as Huckabee's brand of "the politics of hope," and his personal appeal to the Iowa Republican voters trumped Romney's money and well organized team.

Therefore, why didn't Clinton skip Iowa? One of her advisers certainly thought it was a good idea. In addition to her inability to connect with voters, her politics don't match the local sentiment in Iowa either. Leaving Iowa would certainly have dented the image she has tried to present that she has been anointed the next President of the United States, but certainly her third-place finish isn't going to help either.

One last interesting note. Clinton has always promoted herself as the most electable candidate in a general election and subtly reiterated this assertion in her "concession" speech Thursday night in Iowa. MSNBC polls from Iowa do give Clinton the edge over Obama among voters for whom electability with the top issue (Edwards got the highest marks in this category). However only 8% of caucus goers fell into this category while the majority stated that change was the most important issue, and this majority overwhelming voted Obama. Also, while it could be limited to Iowa, Obama had a big lead among Independents and first time caucus goers indicating that he is generating excitement which could attract swing voters and get people to the polls in a general election.