Might Republicans hold on to the White House?

It could just be my personal bias, but it's looking more and more likely that this country could have a Republican in the White House for at least another four years.

After tonight's Republican debate, Romney looks good and heading for a victory in Floria. Unless Guiliani comes back and wins the state, the race will be between McCain and Romney and both are looking good for the general election in November.

John McCain does well in early head-to-head polls due in large part to his appeal to Independent voters. His two biggest weaknesses in the general election would seem to be his inability to inspire passion in the conservative base and get out the vote and also his support for the war in Iraq.

McCain's weakness among core conservatives may be largely neutralized by the Clinton-factor -- core conservatives will show up to vote for almost anyone against Hillary Clinton. The impact of Iraq is less clear. The surge appears to be working. The new news out of Iraq rumors that, as early as July, there may be a deal in place to take US troops out of regular combat as Iraqi forces step in. The negotiation process hasn't yet started so it's unlikely large numbers of US forces will be coming home by year's end. However, even an announcement of plans to replace US troops with Iraqi forces in combat would be a huge boost to John McCain and a further vindication of his support for the surge.

If Romney is the Republican nominee, his appeal to Independents appears far more limited than McCain but given that he was elected Governor of liberal Massachusetts he'll make a good run at moderates. More importantly, his weaknesses will be diminished in the general election and his strengths more on display.

Romney's biggest weakness so far has been his changing positions on social issues. So, while the Clinton (or Obama) campaign will make subtle hints that Romney is a flip-flopper, a Democrat won't win in November by telling the general public their opponent has a moderate/liberal record on social issues.

Moving on to more substantive issues, Romney would also benefit should the news in Iraq continue to get better. On the flip side however, Romney would have some room to maneuver should the news from Iraq take a turn for the worse. As a Washington outsider he could take a strong position of continued involvement in Iraq without inheriting all of President Bush's mistakes in Iraq over the past half-decade.

The other big looming issue is the economy. Based on tonight's debate, it is a big strength for Romney. Romney's stance on economic issues is more crisp and confident than other issues and he can continue to champion his business success as an indicator of his ability to manage the US economy.

Conversely, rather than run on personal expertise Hillary Clinton will likely rely on her husband's economic record and the decline of the current economy occurring on the Republican's watch. It is unclear how the first strategy would play out, the tough Democratic primary is an indication that not everyone is ready to simply reprise the 90s.

The economic situation may not be as dire as claimed. However, regardless of the outcome, Romney is unlikely to inherent all the blame for a poor economy that usually lands on the nominee of the President's party.

To start with, congress's abysmal approval rating is even lower than the President's indicating a widespread distrust and disappointment with government. This not only aligns with Romney's new mantra as an outside agent of change, but also may lead voters to look past party affiliation and vote for the candidate with the best solution to economic problems.

Also in Romney's favor is some indication that American's view lower taxes as an important part a good economy. Whether or not the Republican nominee can spin the expiration of Bush's tax cuts and a huge tax increase, it shouldn't be hard to convince voters that the only way either Obama or Clinton could pay for their litany of new programs is with tax increases.

Conventional wisdom tells us that with a war in Iraq, the economy make headlines, and the Republicans congressional loss in '06 the Democrats should be poised to retake the White House. However, when the race moves beyond the abstract and gets down to two candidates, the Republicans certainly look to have an advantage.