Voter Turnout in South Carolina

Power Line has a new posting on the results from the Democratic primary in South Carolina. In it the author notes the much larger turnout for the Democrats versus the Republican primary in the state. He takes this as a sign that the trend continues in Democrats favor and may be a sign of things to come.

While in the abstract, there are positive signs for the Democrats, these aren't very transferable to the final match-up in November.

First of all, Republicans haven't made a clear choice in South Carolina or anywhere else. McCain, Romney, Huckabee, and perhaps Guiliani all appeal to different parts of the Republican coalition. All these candidates are also unappealing to each faction in-part as well. No candidate has been able to frame himself as appealing to the majority of Republicans as George Bush did in 2000. As a result, without a clear choice, Republicans are less excited about their candidates and less likely to vote in the primary. Most Republicans will unite behind the eventual winner, especially with a deft VP choice such as South Carolina's governor, Mark Sanford. Also, if Clinton is the Democrats nominee, she will serve to further unite and energize the Republican base.

On the Democrats side, primary voters are flooding to the polls in part due to the anger of the last two presidential elections. However, the biggest reason is likely Obama. He is a fresh face with a message of change that is really resonating with voters whose opinion of government (both parties) is at an all-time low.

If Clinton wins the nomination it is unlikely she'll be able to capture this excitement. She (and her husband) have begun running a very personal and negative campaign against Obama. This makes it likely she'll destroy the excitement of voters who have been drawn by Obama's image as an alternative to politics as usual. It is also likely that her tactics will leave many African-American voters with little desire to vote in the general election come November. Whether intentional or not, the Clintons personal attacks on Obama have a racists overtones that are seriously drying up the support for both Hillary and Bill Clinton among the African-American community.

All the indicators are there that would lead one to expect the Democrats to win the White House come November. However, when the competition changes from any Democrat v. any Republican to Clinton/Obama v. McCain/Romney both Republican candidates have attributes which hurt them in the primaries that are likely to help them in November.