Iowa . . .

What do tonight's results mean?

Looking at the results since '76 the winner of the Iowa caucus does have a good chance to go on to win.

On the Dem side - Since '76 only Harkin in '92 and Gephardt in '88 won Iowa but not the nomination. However, both had a big home field advantage with Harkin representing Iowa and Gephardt coming from neighboring Missouri.

On the GOP side - Bob Dole beat George HW Bush in '88 but Bush was the sitting VP giving him an edge overall and Bush only narrowly edged out Reagan in 1980.

However, given the craziness we have already witnessed in this election cycle, it seems unlikely that there are any great lessons to learn from Iowa. While Obama may go on to win the nomination, Clinton has way too many loyalists among the liberal political elite for them to simply follow the popular sentiments of Iowas friendly farmers.

Despite the unprecedented number of political operatives on the ground in Iowa, the caucus still gives the appearance of a civic and personal affair as Iowans focus on civility and personality. As the primaries go national, Clinton will raise the stakes with more hardball politics that will play better among the political elite of New Hampshire, California, and NY.

In Iowa, Obama beat Clinton with personality, positivity, and constructive optimism on how to fix the problems affecting Iowa voters. Clinton ran a far more Washington campaign with a large political machine, a focus on numbers and experience, and repeated inside-the-beltway style partisan attacks on President Bush's policies. While this strategy will play better in NH than Iowa, Obama's momentum and more positive message could easily carry him to victory.

On the GOP side, Huckabee's campaign seemed ideal for Iowa. He is affable, has an everyman quality and appealed to the evangelical Christians that early numbers indicate dominated the polls. While the primaries Southern swing will also benefit Huckabee, he's in for a much rougher ride for numerous reasons.

To begin with, his rise in popularity occurred late and was focused on his down-to-earth personality. This sparred him the media scrutiny suffered by Romney and Guiliani. Going forward there will be a much greater focus not only on who Huckabee is but also what his record is. Already, Rush Limbaugh has attacked Huckabee's conservative credentials. It is likley that this will only get worse as the party elite that backed Bush's 2000 run worry about the political agenda Huckabee will bring with him. While the Iowa voters are mostly concerned with values of faith, this alone will not be enough to carry him if he has a weak grasp on foreign policy, and seems unlikely to recommit Republicans to fiscal restraint and a furtherance of President Bush's conservative economic philosophy and tax cuts.